Bernanke to Congress: Now's the Time

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke urged Congress on Friday to enact legislation overhauling the nations' financial regulatory system to prevent a repeat of the banking and credit turmoil that created the financial crisis.

“With the financial turmoil abating, now is the time for policymakers to take action to reduce the probability and severity of any future crises,” Mr. Bernanke said in remarks to a Fed conference in Chatham, Mass.

The Fed has recently been moving to strengthen oversight of banks, and intensify consumer protections. On Thursday it announced a sweeping proposal to police banks’ pay policies to make sure they do not encourage top executives and other employees to take outsize risks.

But Congress needs to step in and close regulatory gaps and make other changes that only lawmakers have the power to make, Mr. Bernanke said.

At the top of Mr. Bernanke’s list: Congress must set up a mechanism similar to the FDIC to safely wind down big financial firms whose failure could endanger the entire financial system.

And, the costs for such a mechanism should be paid for through an assessment on the financial industry, not by taxpayers, the Fed chief said.

Moreover, Congress needs to set up better systems for regulators to monitor risks lurking in the financial system, he said.

The Obama administration has proposed such action as part of its revamp of financial rules. Its plan would expand the Fed’s powers over big financial institutions but reduce it over consumers. Congress, however, is leery of expanding the Fed’s reach because it and other regulators failed to crack down on problems that led to the crisis.

A House panel on Thursday approved a piece of the Obama plan, the creation of a federal agency devoted to protecting consumers from predatory lending, abusive overdraft fees and unfair rate increases.

Stay current on career opportunities in the ever-changing risk and compliance world by visiting GlobalRiskJobs and GlobalComplianceJobs.

Feds locked in "Regulatory Limbo"?

Well, after a quiet end of summer at GlobalRiskJobs and the Blog, it's time to get back to business. I spent most of August in Europe, doing first hand due diligence on the effect of the weak dollar on American tourism. It really hit home in Switzerland, when I shelled out the equivalent of $11.00 for a Big Mac, fries and a Coke at rest area outside of Zurich. Ouch!

Back to the markets...

The summer was characterized by lots of talk but not enough action on the regulatory front. After nearly nine months of the Obama administration, we have been treated to lots of ideas about how the regulatory structure should/could/might look when the dust settles, but there has not been a ton of substantive change. It has been nearly a year since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the financial world is, admittedly, a different place. Real change on the regulatory front has not materialized, as efforts to remake the rules of finance have been stymied by infighting among regulators, pushback from banks, and opposition from lawmakers who are skeptical of increased government power and scope. Ironically, banks' appetite for risk has grown, with the Wall Street Journal reporting today that the daily VaR of the nation's top 5 banks was over $1B in the second Quarter of 2009, a record level. Geithner went to Capitol Hill with Obama's financial reform outline on March 26! There was a big sense of urgency at the time, but that was nearly six months ago. Geithner urged lawmakers to grant the authority for the government to take over failing financial institutions quickly, yet here we are. Is momentum for change fading? Or is the regulatory reform movement going to slowly and steadily work its way through the financial system...?

The links...

• Peter Wallison of the AEI says asking the Fed to monitor "systemic risk" is like asking a thief to police himself in this opinion piece from the WSJ.
• Goldman Chief Blankfein spoke in Frankfurt today and said anger over banker pay is justified, but overregulation would prove harmful to the markets.
• NY AG Cuomo is investigating the timing of Bank of America's firing of its former General Counsel, Timothy Mayopoulos.
• Dutch Banks (are there any left...?) agreed to bonus limitations.
  

Fed to launch new bank exam teams

The Federal Reserve plans to intensify its scrutiny of bank lending and financial health with teams made up of experts in a variety of new areas. Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo outlined the plan during a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington today. The overhaul, which would make reviews more uniform across the banking system, builds on the stress tests the central bank completed on the biggest 19 banks in May, he said. “We are prioritizing and expanding” the examination process to “assess key operations, risks and risk management activities of large institutions,” Tarullo said in his testimony today. “This program will be distinct from the activities of on-site examination teams so as to provide an independent supervisory perspective. This work will be performed by a multidisciplinary group composed of our economic and market researchers, supervisors, market operations specialists and accounting and legal experts,” Tarullo said.

A regulatory tussle has been unfolding since the Obama administration proposed strengthening the Fed's regulatory profile. The major regulators have each opposed some aspect of the plan in hopes of maintaining their own powers as the winds of change blow in.

Please sir, I want some more (regulation)...

"We are looking at a world where the fist of government will be stronger than the invisible hand of the market"

--Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Executive Officer of PIMCO, 5/19/09

In El-Erian's May Outlook piece, he envisions a banking system that is a shadow of its former self. Regulation will be more expansive in form and reach, and the sector will be "de-risked, de-levered, and subject to greater burden sharing. The forces of consolidation and shrinkage will spread beyond banks, impacting a host of non-bank financial institutions as well as the investment management industry".

At GlobalRiskJobs and GlobalComplianceJobs, we can't help but nod in agreement when we hear things like this. We have been anticipating such an environment as the pound of flesh to be exacted in the wake of the Great Meltdown, and when high profile investors like El-Erian go on record with such comments, it sends the signal that the government is a long way from backing down from intnsifying the regulatory environment. Thus far, it seems there has been much talk and little action on the "new normal" that has been talked about. It appears that many banks, asset managers, and other finance companies are engaged in a game of personnel "chicken". They seem to know in their hearts that a new regime is coming that will require new bodies; professionals with the expertise and experience to help them comply with new legal and risk reporting requirements that will certainly be part of the this new environment. But, the overall trend appears to be one of wait and see. When are the requirements going to come? June? August? October? Why not hold out until the last minute and hire when the government imposed deadline is looming? Well, there are lots of reasons not to do that, first and foremost being the tone of the employment environment. When the deadline is looming, how many others will be in the same boat? Lots. And a basic understanding of supply and demand would tell one that when the talent market tightens one pays a lot more for that talent. Look no further than Sarbanes-Oxley for Exhibit A from the recent past. And, guess what else becomes a real issue? Retention of existing employees. Because, when there is a bid out there in the market and the phones start ringing it will make everyone wearing a risk or compliance hat a more valuable commodity.

The links:

• A new credit card reform bill was passed by the Senate and is on its way to President Obama.
• The Federal Reserve will include legacy assets for the first time in a $1 trillion program to revive credit markets, expanding the effort to commercial real estate securities issued before the start of this year.
• NY governor Andrew Cuomo sued two debt settlement firms for deceiving consumers and false advertising.
• Treasury Secretary Geithner said the government should not impose caps on executive pay.
• New fees proposed by the FDIC would hit big banks harder than small ones.
• The FT weighs in on Geithner's plans to regulate the derivatives markets.
  

Regulators shift gears to focus on loan quality

As bank stress tests for "The 19" evolve, regulators are increasingly focused on loan quality, given the big disparity they are finding in underwriting standards at the banks. Subsequent to their initial due diligence, the feds have determined that lending practices have to be given at least as much weight as macro-economic scenarios in determining individual bank health. This is an important development because it makes it easier to separate vulnerabilities caused by bad management from those caused by factors beyond management's control. This criteria gives Geithner more leverage to make management changes at any banks coming back for more TARP cash.

G-20 moves forward on regulatory framework

The new era of finance is now dawning in earnest. Word from the G-20 meetings in London is that world leaders have agreed on a regulatory framework for countering excesses that led to the current global financial crisis. In particular, the group called for stricter limits on hedge funds, executive pay, credit-rating agencies and bank risk-taking. In addition, they pledged more than $1T in emergency aid to assist with collateral damage from the crisis. While countries will mainly be left to regulate their own markets and companies, the G-20 recognized a need for some global oversight by establishing a new Financial Stability Board to promote regulator cooperation and work with the IMF. Hedge funds defined as "systemically important" will be subjected to greater regulation and oversight. Pay and bonuses will be examined to create "sustainable compensation schemes". Accountants will need to improve valuation methods and creit rating agencies will need to meet a new code of standards.

Meanwhile, focusing back on the US, KC Fed President Thomas Hoenig endorsed the notion of the Federal Reserve becoming the regulator for systemic risk in US finance. In Geithner's recent proposal, such a systemic-risk regulator would have the authority to compel companies to boost their capital and curtail borrowing, as well as to seize companies get into trouble.

The Financial Stability Forum agreed to move towards creating stricter capital requirements for banks around the world, reversing their prior view of giving financial institutions more flexibilty in how they calculate reserves.

Ron Resnick, co-founder of financial consulting firm CounselWorks has an interesting piece on his views about government assumptions in the regulation of financial firms. He questions Treasury's new supervisory and regulatory foundation based upon the concept of "systemically important firms".

Bank Lending Picked Up in December

The first results of the US Treasury's new monthly bank lending report are out and they say that bank lending rebounded in December. Overall, loan origination and underwriting activity were weak in October and November, but picked up in December, fueled by falling mortgage rates. Read about the results here. Still no word on how much the shadow banking system is lending...

More news from around the financial world:

• Greenspan comes out in favor of bank nationalization and says U.S. needs to do more
  
• A few Congressional Republicans joined him in putting nationalization on the table.
  
• R. Allen Stanford is accused by U.S. regulators of running a massive ongoing fraud through his Houston-based Stanford Group Co.
• A former chief accountant for the SEC thinks Madoff investors may be able to hold their auditors accountable in the fraud.
• RBS feels the heat and gets Draconian on incentive comp.
  

Stress Test will Empower Regulators

In the aftermath of Geithner's layout of the bank rescue plan, federal banking regulators are descending upon the 18 biggest US banks with a set of new more stringent criteria with which to stress test the banks for long term health. NYT's Eric Dash wonders if regulators could become the new arbiters of American finance. The new scrutiny may go a long way toward determining which banks succeed long term, and which wind up being nationalized or allowed to fail. And regulation is sure to be a hot topic at the upcoming G-7 meetings in Rome. The Financial Stability Forum will likely propose new global standards on bank capital rules and for regulating off-exchange markets.

More news:

• The HBOS whistleblower saga continues. Read the full text of the Moore memo here.
• Speaking of whistleblowing, WSJ's Aaron Lucchetti wonders why Wall Street is reluctant to blow the whistle on the likes of Madoff.
  
• Bank CEO testimony on Capitol Hill had its moments. Evan Newmark thinks the CEOs showed their sales chops at least. It looks like Congress needs a lesson in the shadow banking system to understand who is not lending. Bloomberg's Caroline Baum imagines the tables being turned and CEO's questioning Barney Frank.
  
• Keep an eye on RBS as a model for the future of banks with big government ownership. If the the UK wants the balance sheet reduced, where do you think it's going to come from? Not the domestic market...
• At least one firm thinks investment grade debt looks attractive.
• Shareholders rise up and the Fortis deal is voted down.

Remember to visit GlobalRiskJobs for career news and job postings in risk and compliance.

Big Banks to be "Stress Tested"

More news on the regulation front. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that many banks will be subject to rigorous examinations to see if they are healthy enough to lend before they receive additional federal bailout funds. Federal regulators will likely require large banks to undergo a stress test to determine just how bad things could get in the worst case. The new oversight could take a step toward addressing longstanding disagreements among regulators about the health and viability of scores of institutions. Setting up a stress test could create a more objective set of standards and might also reveal the depths of the industry's problems. Keep in mind the theme that GlobalRiskJobs has been repeating for quite some time: regulation and reporting requirements will just keep getting stronger.

• Geithner will unveil the Obama Adminstration's bank rescue plan later today. He is expected to present a multi-faceted program to encourage financial institutions to lend again. A housing plan centering on mortgage modification and a "bad bank" public-private partnership will also be key areas. Bloomberg has a preview of the 11 am announcement.
  
• Nouriel Roubini had some strong words about regulation in the FT. He states that risk models fail because business lacks discipline to heed them, and thinks Basel II has failed even before being fully implemented.
  
• Also in WSJ, news of an emerging plan calling for issuers of pools of mortages to retain a slice of the securitization in order to keep some "skin in the game". Participants in the annual American Securitization Forum this week in Las Vegas are discussing different ways to buttress the market.
• The new SEC Chief pledged to crack down on fraud as she announced big changes at the commission. The WSJ thinks her central point has got it backward.
  
• Japanese corporate bond risk has risen to all time highs resulting from the pace of economic decline.
• We mentioned credit cards becoming a problem last week. NYT reports that private label cards are already showing signs of strain.
• Chris Hughes has some notes on the global nature of this credit crisis.
• DealBook reports that 8 big bank chief execs will descend on the Capitol via public transportation in order to get their public whipping from Barney Frank and the House Financial Services Committee.
  

The Securities Act of '09?

At GlobalRiskJobs we focus on professionals in the risk management and regulatory compliance communities. For quite awhile we have been anticipating that more intense regulation and reporting (and hence more demand for such professionals) would be the ultimate payback for all of the government money that has been used to stabilize the financial system. Well, since the Obama administration took office two weeks ago, it has been hard to miss the drumbeat of regulation and government oversight that has been getting louder. Alison Fitzgerald and Alison Vekshin of Bloomberg News have written a piece that consolidates that belief in a huge revision of securities laws. The authors anticipate the biggest overhaul of financial regulation since Roosevelt created the FDIC and the SEC in the 1930s. Pres. Obama is, in fact, discussing reregulation this week with congressional leaders, and topics include controls on unregulated hedge funds, new rules for executive pay and restricting naked credit default swaps. NYU-Stern professor Robert Engle suggests that this is a "major moment", a situation so unique that it offers the ability to make a huge impact. And Sen. Chris Dodd, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee went on record yesterday as saying Congress will consider creating regulators to enforce consumer protections and monitor systemic risk as lawmakers rewrite the rules on Wall Street. In the House, Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank said he planned to start the overhaul with legislation that makes the Federal Reserve the systemic-risk regulator. And former Fed Chairman and current presidential advisor Paul Volcker said hedge funds and private equity firms should be required to register with the SEC to increase transparency. So it appears that public opinion has swung so far as to put EVERYTHING on the table. We've said it before but it bears repeating. New regulation means consulting jobs as companies seek help figuring out what it all means, and more new jobs when those consultants leave and the companies need people to keep up with those requirements.

A tour of the headlines today:

• Bernard Madoff rejected a fund's demand for an outside audit, saying his fund's strategy was so secret only his brother could do that. Linda Sandler reports.
• More color on the U.S. government pressure on BofA to complete the Merrill acquisition in the Wall Street Journal.
• A.I.G.'s securities lending business was also a key contributor to its demise, according to the WSJ.
• A WSJ editorial says that lost in the executive pay hoopla is a dangerous toxic asset guarantee debate.
• The SEC took a beating on Capitol Hill yesterday at the Madoff Hearing.
• The head of risk management at a hedge fund seems to have fallen down on the job.
• A 45% decline in syndicated loans in Europe is leading companies to pay higher fees to lock in bank loans years before they expire.
• The FT reports on details of Deutsche Bank's 4Q trading hit.
• A good story on being George Soros by Chrystia Freeland of FT.
  

The Season of Endless Losses

Doesn't it seem like the bank losses just keep coming out of nowhere? In the past, didn't banks just swallow hard, take the equity beating and move on? What's going on here? Well, it's different this time and the so-called Shadow Banking System is why. PIMCO's Bill Gross wrote about it way back in December 2007 in his monthly Investment Outlook, when he wrote that we were witnessing nothing less than a breakdown of a modern banking system that had become exceedingly complex. The piece was an interesting read back then, it is a stunning read now. Flash forward to the current day, where Forbes has a commentary written by NYU-Stern Professors Viral V. Acharya and Philipp Schnabel warning us to expect the shadow banking losses to keep coming. They cite the recent RBS ($41B) and State Street ($10B) losses as examples of losses that seem to come from out of the blue but are largely the product of off-balance sheet vehicles which were set up to arbitrage regulation. The commentary is adapted from a soon to be published book called Restoring Financial Stability: How to Repair a Failed System....A quick tour around the news outlets:

• Today's Wall Street Journal contains several good Op-Ed pieces as the stimulus debate continues. Former Vice Chairman of the Federal reserve Board Alan S. Blinder presents his economic wish list, former U.S. House Majority Leader Dick Armey thinks Washington could use less Keynes and more Hayek, and the inimitable George Soros thinks we can do better than a "Bad Bank".
• Early Madoff critic Harry Markopolos testifies at a Congressional hearing today. His written testimony has been released here. It's more blistering criticism of substandard performance by regulatory and enforcement bodies.
• Continuing yesterday's thread on "Bonus Outrage", early details today of a $500,000 cap on executive pay at TARP banks proposed by the Obama Administration. Also, check out Thomas Frank's WSJ opinion piece about the Wall Street bonus system.

Future of Finance in The Economist

The latest issue of The Economist has an excellent 14-page special report on the future of finance. One article in particular is the latest to discuss the reliance on mathematical models and their fallibility. There is also a good piece about financial regulation, a necessary but difficult prospect in free markets. There is also an article whose theme is growing ever more frequent, "Fixing Finance". Nearly everyone agrees that the system, as currently configured, is broken. This article warns that there is a thin line between making this remarkable creation better and suppressing it.