Can a Financial Meltdown Happen Again?

Happy New Year. Most people in the financial industry are likely happy to see the 2009 calendar go in the trash and have high hopes that 2010 brings a continued recovery for the battered sector. The American Economic Association is currently gathered in Atlanta, and while most agree that the worst is behind us, they are skeptical about real progress being made to avoid a similar crisis in the future. In fact, count Tom Sargent, an economist from NYU, among those who think the response so far has actually made us more vulnerable to a deeper crisis! The logic goes that the bailout has created an expectation of future bailouts for big banks, and as a result management will feel emboldened to take even more risk, knowing that the government safety net will be there. Some wonder, like we have at GlobalRiskJobs, that the window for real meaningful reform may be closing. One of the current problems is that bank lending, especially in light of the collapse of the shadow banking system, is crucial to sustaining this fragile recovery. Hence, any Draconian measures the regulators might enact must not forestall banks' willingness to lend. Other economists worry that central banks' interventions have exposed them to greater financial and political risk which could hinder their effectiveness in future crises.

Also at the top of today's news is the decision by US Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), the chairman of the Senate banking committee and a central figure in the government’s financial bailout of 2008 and the economic stimulus package adopted last year, not to seek reelection. What effect will his lame-duck status on pending financial reform legislation? Only time will tell. Will he ignore the demands of the special interests on the left? Will he go back to his roots and stand with the banks and financial firms who traditionally donated to his campaigns? Or, will he ignore partisanship altogether as he exits and push for simply the most effective reform that he can? Interesting questions as we start the new year and push toward the finish line on financial reform.

Multi-tasking during the Fire

"When firefighters are still struggling to extinguish the blaze, talking about fire prevention seems premature. The worst financial crisis since the Depression isn't over, yet it's time to put the best brains to work at restructuring the financial regulatory structure so we don't go through this again."
-- David Wessel, Wall Street Journal, 12 March 2009

At GlobalRiskJobs, we couldn't agree more. Yet, this crisis has legs, and I don't think anybody is really ready to declare that the end of it is near. But, it does seem as if the stirrings have regulatory discussion have begun in earnest this week. When government officials like Bernanke, and business commentators like Wessel begin to turn their attention to regulatory architecture, it is a good thing for the market for risk and compliance professionals. It means that what you have known was coming for the past year or more is beginning to materialize. For a long time, it appeared that the discussion would not begin to take place until the system was stabilized. Yet, the longer the pain goes on, the more apparent it is that discussions of real change on the regulatory front need to occur now. For awhile, things were held up by the natural turbulence of a massive government change-over. As the Obama administration settles in and appointments have been made, the executors have dug-in and begun to take steps. Be prepared for the pace to pick up.

The links:

• Bloomberg's Jonathan Weil writes that Moody's admission of its shortcomings in independence and integrity in federal court last week will prove extremely damaging to the Agency's public reputation.
• Bernie Madoff is ready to plead guilty. While he is ready to go down on his sword and face up to 150 years in prison on 11 charges, he's holding out on the conspiracy charge to avoid implicating others. The WSJ has a helpful primer on the Madoff case so far.
  
• Not in my lifetime? GE has lost its S&P AAA rating which the company had held since 1956 - the year of CEO Jeff Immelt's birth.
• Compensation consultant Johnson Associates believes Wall Street's longtime comp structure is going to change radically.
• The Oracle of Omaha has weighed in on suspension of mark-to-market debate.
• As MBA's enter the home stretch, the WSJ has a story on the state of hiring at London's banks. It's not pretty.

The Securities Act of '09?

At GlobalRiskJobs we focus on professionals in the risk management and regulatory compliance communities. For quite awhile we have been anticipating that more intense regulation and reporting (and hence more demand for such professionals) would be the ultimate payback for all of the government money that has been used to stabilize the financial system. Well, since the Obama administration took office two weeks ago, it has been hard to miss the drumbeat of regulation and government oversight that has been getting louder. Alison Fitzgerald and Alison Vekshin of Bloomberg News have written a piece that consolidates that belief in a huge revision of securities laws. The authors anticipate the biggest overhaul of financial regulation since Roosevelt created the FDIC and the SEC in the 1930s. Pres. Obama is, in fact, discussing reregulation this week with congressional leaders, and topics include controls on unregulated hedge funds, new rules for executive pay and restricting naked credit default swaps. NYU-Stern professor Robert Engle suggests that this is a "major moment", a situation so unique that it offers the ability to make a huge impact. And Sen. Chris Dodd, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee went on record yesterday as saying Congress will consider creating regulators to enforce consumer protections and monitor systemic risk as lawmakers rewrite the rules on Wall Street. In the House, Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank said he planned to start the overhaul with legislation that makes the Federal Reserve the systemic-risk regulator. And former Fed Chairman and current presidential advisor Paul Volcker said hedge funds and private equity firms should be required to register with the SEC to increase transparency. So it appears that public opinion has swung so far as to put EVERYTHING on the table. We've said it before but it bears repeating. New regulation means consulting jobs as companies seek help figuring out what it all means, and more new jobs when those consultants leave and the companies need people to keep up with those requirements.

A tour of the headlines today:

• Bernard Madoff rejected a fund's demand for an outside audit, saying his fund's strategy was so secret only his brother could do that. Linda Sandler reports.
• More color on the U.S. government pressure on BofA to complete the Merrill acquisition in the Wall Street Journal.
• A.I.G.'s securities lending business was also a key contributor to its demise, according to the WSJ.
• A WSJ editorial says that lost in the executive pay hoopla is a dangerous toxic asset guarantee debate.
• The SEC took a beating on Capitol Hill yesterday at the Madoff Hearing.
• The head of risk management at a hedge fund seems to have fallen down on the job.
• A 45% decline in syndicated loans in Europe is leading companies to pay higher fees to lock in bank loans years before they expire.
• The FT reports on details of Deutsche Bank's 4Q trading hit.
• A good story on being George Soros by Chrystia Freeland of FT.
  

Wall Street Compensation Under Fire

In the time since it was revealed that John Thain paid bonuses to legacy Merrill employees in the run up to the BofA merger, there has been a growing outcry about Wall Street compensation. It seems a day does not pass without a new story and a new angle on the bonus controversy. I know everyone is weary of the "Wall Street / Main Street" rhetoric that was so prevalent in the fall, but the heart of bonus season has added new fuel to the fire. No doubt spurred on by U.S. President Obama's "shameful" comment in reference to Merrill's conduct, it seems every media outlet has an opinion on the matter. Personally, I was pulled into the debate immediately upon arriving at a Super Bowl party on Sunday night. On one side, a guy who makes his living on Wall Street, on the other a tech entrepreneur doing everything he can to keep his small company moving forward in a sinking economy. At the center of the storm, how can a bank that takes government money to survive pay any bonuses at all? Let me be clear, the Wall Streeter is not a guy who has made outsize sums of money pushing now-toxic assets around the financial universe, but rather a hard-working guy with 3 kids who makes a decent living (by NY standards) in a more traditional product area. He is, however, employed by a financial institution that has taken billions in TARP funds to stay afloat. You can guess where this is going...The media loves to write about the hedgies and bankers who got paid millions and ruined the financial system, but there is another side to this as well. While many of the American Middle Class lives paycheck to paycheck to eke out a living, it may come as a surprise to hear that lots of Wall Streeters live bonus check to bonus check. A disruption to the comp cycle can be just as devastating for these folks. Yes, there are lots of people in the NYC suburbs, for instance, with 3 or 4 kids, living in one modest residence, with hefty property tax bills, paying nannies and babysitters to ease the dual working couple burden who, as shocking as it sounds to the rest of the world, cannot make ends meet on a $150,000 base salary. They rely on that "variable comp" component to get even or sock a few bucks away for college and retirement every year. But, the debate raging now is all about the question of what IS a bonus? Is it a little extra cash in years where everything goes right? Or is an entitlement that gets scaled based upon different performance metrics? How many of you who work on the street have heard the mantra, "it's a year end business" when asking for a bump to your base salary, perhaps? Is it "discretionary" compensation, as many bosses like to put it? Or is it "arbitrary" compensation, as many receivers of a bonus can tell you they feel there is no rhyme or reason to the number. I remember vividly being told by a super-cynical more senior banker early in my career that one's bonus is "a little bit about what you've done, a little bit about what we think you're going to do, and a LOT about what the job market away looks like". Well, I'm thinking he may have been right. It seems that this comp year at financial firms that generally did not make money last year and have dim prospects for this year, the defense of bonuses is that troops will simply walk across the street and find another employer if they don't get paid. The Main Street reaction is that this argument is pure B.S. and the hundreds of thousands of layoffs in the sector would seem to back that up. But as the latest news of a financial talent raid illustrates, the reality is that there will always be a bid for skilled people. That's what the banks fear. In past downturns, things have turned hard the other direction and banks did not want to be caught in the talent squeeze by having to dole out even more money by way of guarantees to attract people back to their firms when lots of others want to hire the same people. Will it play out the same way this time?

Let's take a quick tour of compensation news form the last few days.

• Catherine Rampell looks at a history of the holiday bonus
• NY Times has some, er, passionate letters to the editor today regarding the bonus debate.
• President Obama continued to pound the table about Wall Street bonuses.
• Rob Cox at Breakingviews says the bonus system should be reformed, not destroyed.
• Andrew Ross Sorkin ponders what a world where regulators receive bonuses would like.
• David Segal reports on a most unpopular group of professionals.
• News that Credit Suisse will cut bonuses 55%
• BofA looks like it knew more about Merrill bonuses than it initially let on.
• News that Deutsche Bank will cut bonuses by 60%.
• Deal Journal wonders if Thain might have been right about the Merrill bonuses.

And remember, wherever you stand on the bonus debate, you can always look to GlobalRiskJobs for Risk and Compliance career opportunities and compensation information.