Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Senate Passes Ant-Fraud Measure

In a 92-4 vote, the U.S. Senate passed legislation giving the government more power to prosecute mortgage and financial fraud. The legislation would also create a commission to investigate the causes of the economic crisis. Some highlights:
  • makes it easier to prosecute fraud in commodities futures trading - including options and debt derivatives.
  • Authorizes $265 million over the next 2 years to hire more than 600 lawyers and investigators at justice department, SEC and other federal agencies.
  • Extends anti-fraud law to cover private mortgage brokers and TARP recipients
  • Examines the role of credit rating agencies.
  • Creates a Senate committee to conduct its own investigation of the financial crisis.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Burning the Village in order to save it?

The WSJ has a strong Op-Ed piece this morning that takes a look at Federal tactics used to force BofA to complete the Merrill acquisition last December. They look at the BofA case and see Paulson and Bernanke forcing Ken Lewis to "blow up" Bank of America (maybe this is how Lewis earned his "mulligan" while Rick Wagoner caught one between the eyes...). Spreading systemic risk in the name of containing it....ordering the deception of shareholders, killing financial confidence in the name of restoring it...The Journal appears sympathetic to BofA and goes on to say that the Merrill-related bullying fundamentally increased systemic risk by "transplanting" risk from a Wall Street brokerage to one of the country's largest deposit-taking institutions. In addition, the WSJ states that Bernanke and Paulson undermined the transparency so vital to investor confidence in the capital markets. The collateral damage here seems to be the lukewarm response from most of the investor community and Wall Street to the latest federal initiatives like TALF and PPIP...For Caroline Baum's take on the same, check this out.

Here's word that Goldman Sachs is increasing risk taking at the fastest pace on the street. This should not be that surprising, although given Morgan Stanley's apparent pullback in risk taking, it is important. According to Bloomberg News, Goldman's VaR jumped 22% to $240 million in the 1st quarter - 2x that of Morgan Stanley. Consequently, GS reported 1st Quarter revenue of $9.4B to MS reporting $3.04B.

While the NYT reports Wall Street is unfazed by stress test details, many investors are simply waiting for the results to be released on May 4. Get the Fed white paper disclosing the stress test methodology at GlobalRiskJobs.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Regulators shift gears to focus on loan quality

As bank stress tests for "The 19" evolve, regulators are increasingly focused on loan quality, given the big disparity they are finding in underwriting standards at the banks. Subsequent to their initial due diligence, the feds have determined that lending practices have to be given at least as much weight as macro-economic scenarios in determining individual bank health. This is an important development because it makes it easier to separate vulnerabilities caused by bad management from those caused by factors beyond management's control. This criteria gives Geithner more leverage to make management changes at any banks coming back for more TARP cash.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

G-20 moves forward on regulatory framework

The new era of finance is now dawning in earnest. Word from the G-20 meetings in London is that world leaders have agreed on a regulatory framework for countering excesses that led to the current global financial crisis. In particular, the group called for stricter limits on hedge funds, executive pay, credit-rating agencies and bank risk-taking. In addition, they pledged more than $1T in emergency aid to assist with collateral damage from the crisis. While countries will mainly be left to regulate their own markets and companies, the G-20 recognized a need for some global oversight by establishing a new Financial Stability Board to promote regulator cooperation and work with the IMF. Hedge funds defined as "systemically important" will be subjected to greater regulation and oversight. Pay and bonuses will be examined to create "sustainable compensation schemes". Accountants will need to improve valuation methods and creit rating agencies will need to meet a new code of standards.

Meanwhile, focusing back on the US, KC Fed President Thomas Hoenig endorsed the notion of the Federal Reserve becoming the regulator for systemic risk in US finance. In Geithner's recent proposal, such a systemic-risk regulator would have the authority to compel companies to boost their capital and curtail borrowing, as well as to seize companies get into trouble.

The Financial Stability Forum agreed to move towards creating stricter capital requirements for banks around the world, reversing their prior view of giving financial institutions more flexibilty in how they calculate reserves.

Ron Resnick, co-founder of financial consulting firm CounselWorks has an interesting piece on his views about government assumptions in the regulation of financial firms. He questions Treasury's new supervisory and regulatory foundation based upon the concept of "systemically important firms".